Randy, I think I detect just a hint of sarcasm in that post :-)

No I don't think BSTC management has booked a flight to Mexico. But, there is a familiar cycle that runs in technology startups. You develop an idea to the point that it looks like it will work - it's "very promising" - and try to get bought out by a big fish. That's when upper management, and first-ring investors, get their big payday. If instead you go all the way on your own and start selling the product, you have only the reality of how profitable it actually is, or isn't. That big payday may or may not ever come.

Each round of investment in BSTC has been paid out in salaries (some of them huge) and expenses - like fees to MDs signed on as 'investigators' - but the trials never quite finish. Instead, it's back to pitching potential investors about this "very promising" drug.

After 10 years, I've stopped paying attention to Collagenase. Maybe I'm making this all sound worse than it is, but if I were an early investor in this company, I'd be pretty unhappy at this point.

did NO ONE go look at the link I posted?

on page 4 is a timeline, Auxillium has AA4500 (collagenase)scheduled for market release in 2008. Pages 17-23 are all about Dupuytrens treatment and stats. You males may not wish to venture beyond page 23... be warned. :)

PLEASE GO LOOK AT IT!

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/14/142/142125/items/194294/UBSPres.pdf

bb, I've read that presentation before. 2008 is a long ways off and remember, that presentation is aimed at investors so it's the most optimistic estimate they could conjure up.

Randy, I shouldn't pretend to be an expert on these things and I hope you're right. But part of the pitch to shareholders and potential investors is always the great stuff "in the pipeline" because that holds out the promise that the stock will be worth a lot more in the future than it is today. Drug companies love to have good-looking products sitting in that pipeline, not yet bringing in money, because "future value" is great for stoc prices. You can't ever let that pipeline be empty.

jim:

"Over Time" How much time?

According to an extrapolation of the AUXILIUM data, 180,000 people have surgery for Dups each year. My guess is that at most about 2,000 people per year are getting NA at this point. That a whopping *one* percent, so you are quite right for the present.

Having hatched it in the fist place, this Forum is extremely well connected as to the National (US) goings on in regard to NA. We'll have a good sense of Team Eaton's success at the ASSH convention by the end of the year.

Nothing much else this big will happen until he publishes in about two+ more years after he has a full five years of recurrence data. So, we'll know what NA's *immediate* impact is going to be soon. If we don't see a good sized bounce in new CHS doing NA, we are indeed in for a long haul as you suggest. I, however, am more optimistic. It is going to be quite *telling* and fascinating regardless.

Wolfgang, It's already *been* a long haul. Discussion of NA appeared here over *six* years ago.

In my more optimistic moments I'm hoping that all the preparation being done by Eaton & Team will deliver a *huge* Reality Check & Wake Up call to the prevailing "Limited Fasciectomy" mentality. (It really does needs to be "limited" all right.:-) Hopefully that 1% NA will go to 10% over the next year. We'll see just how stubborn these CHS really are in the light of the actual facts, not the preconceived notions and misconceptions.

A quickly increasing use of NA will certainly light a fire under AUXILIUM. The'll need to stay on track and come to the party, if they plan to come at all. By 2008 they could be in a "Me Too" position, which does not appear to be in their business model for Collagenase.